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08
Oct
137

The situation in Lebanon has reached a crisis with rising fear that a sectarian war may erupt because of the speculation that the International Tribunal will release names of those suspected of involvement in the killing of the former Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri, with fingers likely to be pointed at some members of the Hezbollah party. Everyone in Lebanon is wondering about what will happen after the indictment ? Where is Lebanon headed ?

Hezbollah,the party that fought Israel in South Lebanon in 2006, when Israel unleashed its mighty arsenal against the party aiming to eliminate it from the scene so that the New Middle East and North Africa Order  would emerge as Condoleezza Rice sought. Unfortunately however, it was a still born plan, much to the disappointment of the United States and Israel that Hezbollah. The national resistance force was able to defend Lebanon and forced Israel and its allies to seek a cessation of hostility. After failing to achieve its objectives militarily, they are now turning the tables to nail the Hezbollah party by triggering a civil war, using the international Tribunal to indict members of the party.

 

The irony is that both US And Israel will not allow any international court to prosecute their own citizens, but they are so eager to do so in this case to achieve their goals. As USA has done earlier in Cambodia, Yugoslavia, Sierra Leone, Rwanda and Sudan.

 

Syria, Saudi Arabia,Turkey and Iran have stepped up their efforts to avoid another catastrophe from overtaking Lebanon and prevent clashes between the different parties, which will otherwise look like Shiite- Sunni clashes, and could have a negative impact on neighboring countries, leading to further chaos and instability in the region. All these countries have rallied behind Lebanon pledging support for its unity, stability and its institutions and support for it in the face of any Israeli aggression.

 

Lebanon is facing political discord and descending into a deadly sectarian conflict. The Lebanese formula for the making of the society links the survival of each separate sect with a particular foreign power and hence internationalizes the country, thus making it a theater of the regional conflict. As Arabs, it is important to accept our involvement in the game\'s influence on Lebanon, and raise the levels of security to protect against encouragement of foreign intervention, as well as acceptance of the Israeli war on it.

 

Many analysts would blame the current mess on the Lebanese leaders for unleashing a series of policies which have affected the peace of the country and stability. The major decisions taken by officials on various occasions which facilitated and helped in the development of the country are at the mercy of a decision of the court, igniting massive accusations and counter-accusations leading to conflicts that blow up all the contradictions inherent and emerging.

 

It is no longer even a concern among Arabs alone that they cannot prevent the consequences and fallout after from handing over the case of the Hariri killing to the US. The plot set up by (former US President George) Bush and Jaques Chirac is to implicate Syria in the killing and witness the fall of the Syrian regime. That also failed and Syria was cleared of any involvement in the massacre which, by all indications, leads to Israel. The US masterminded the plot and that was highlighted by a Hezbollah leader who displayed some figures and facts about Israel\'s involvement. As one commentator said, Israel can enter the Guinness book of records for the number of spies they have implanted in Lebanon, helping Tel Aviv to control and penetrate the security network of the Lebanese and use it for their benefit.

 

To counter the fallout of the likely indictment, Syria and Saudi Arabia, along with Turkey and Iran, have intensified their contacts to achieve a settlement which will satisfy all parties. The people of Lebanon are building their hopes on this axis. The Lebanese government argues that it is difficult to cancel the international tribunal, because that is beyond the capacity of people of good will, and because those who created the International Tribunal did not achieve their goals. But the other parties argue the legitimacy of the then Fouad Seniora `s government, that allowed the investigation to go out of its hand.

 

The stories in circulation, that the Americans have told the concerned Lebanese that the indictment will be issued almost before the middle of next month. Even for the highest level, the Arab Higher Committee, there will be no room to retreat under any circumstances. There is no room for retreat from the International Tribunal, because of the American logic, which says: The Hezbollah becomes a real threat to Israel and some Arab countries allied to America and even on the inside of Lebanon, there is no way to be met only by political means, namely by pressing the international embargo and make it out to international law.

 

This will lead to the US firing the last bullet against the Lebanese resistance, backed by the international community, to disarm Hezbollah and the Lebanese national resistance.

 

Beirut, the mini Paris of the East, envied by many, is under real threat this time and the US, which has a strong interest in policy in the Middle East, since its own is Israeli-centric, is unlikely to be an honest broker. The basis of US influence is some regional Arab players like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar and by preventing a regional solution to the crisis, it will cause more damage to the fragile peace and tranquility that beams over the sky of the Middle East .

 

Dr.WAIEL Awwad is a Senior Arab journalist based in South Asia. He writes a regular column for IRGA on the situation in the Arab world.

www.waielawwad.com

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